When DLS triggers
The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (DLS) method triggers when overs are lost to rain or other interruptions during a one-day match. It does not apply to Test cricket, where the match is played to a different time-control and the result is determined by wickets and runs.
DLS applies to the chasing side’s target. If the chasing side’s innings is interrupted, the par score is recalculated at the moment of the interruption. If the bowling side’s innings is interrupted, the chasing side’s target is reduced by the proportion of resources the bowling side lost.
What the par score actually is
The par score is the score the chasing side needs at any given point to be exactly level with the original run-rate required, adjusted for the resources the chasing side has lost. The chasing side is ahead if they’re above par; behind if they’re below.
The DLS model uses two resources: overs remaining and wickets in hand. A side with ten wickets in hand and twenty overs remaining has more resources than a side with five wickets in hand and ten overs remaining, even though the run-rate required may be the same.
Why the chase arithmetic shifts
When overs are lost, the chasing side’s required run-rate typically climbs. The reasons are intuitive: with fewer overs available, the chasing side has fewer balls to score the same number of runs. But the actual adjustment depends on the wickets in hand.
If the chasing side has ten wickets in hand when the rain falls, they have all their resources available and the required rate climbs sharply. If they have three wickets in hand, the required rate climbs less sharply because their remaining resources are already limited.
What changes tonight
Two fixtures tonight carry a meaningful rain risk. The ODI tri-series fixture at the Wankhede has a 40% chance of passing showers in the second innings. The T20 World Cup fixture at the Oval has a 20% chance of an extended interruption.
If the Wankhede fixture loses ten overs to rain, the chasing side’s target drops by approximately 22 runs under DLS, depending on the wickets in hand at the moment of the interruption.
What the captain’s call looks like
The captain’s toss call is sensitive to the rain forecast. If the forecast shows a high chance of interruption in the second innings, the captain who wins the toss will typically bowl first — the chase becomes shorter and the DLS adjustment works in the chasing side’s favour.
If the forecast shows a low chance of interruption, the toss decision reverts to the surface read. The Wankhede surface typically favours chasing under lights, so the call is to bowl first regardless of the forecast.
What to watch
Three things to watch during a rain interruption: the resource table the broadcaster shows on screen, the commentary on what the par score is at the moment of the interruption, and the conditions when play resumes. The conditions matter because a wet outfield reduces the ball’s travel and changes the effective scoring rate.
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This piece was filed by the comesportsnow cricket desk under our standard editorial workflow. The DLS analysis sits on the ICC’s published methodology. The article is timestamped and will be updated as the variables change through the tournament.